TGIF! In typical Friday night fashion, we’ve got a massive 12-game MLB slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, June 14
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Royals-Dodgers: Cole Ragans
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
Even with 12 games in play and a bunch of good pitchers toeing the rubber, ownership is projected to be pretty concentrated. As of this writing, five pitchers are projected to be somewhere between 20% and 32.4% owned on DraftKings. Royals left-hander Cole Ragans is not among that group of five, and he’s the top contrarian pitcher on the slate. Though a matchup with the Dodgers is always risky proposition, Ragans’ upside makes him at least worth diving into.
Ragans is averaging 20.2 fantasy points per game while sporting a 3.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 95 strikeouts and 25 walks. His underlying numbers are right in line with his actual numbers, suggesting this is exactly the pitcher he is right now. Ragans is in great form with quality starts in four out of his last five appearances, and he’s been an elite fantasy commodity going back to the second half of last season. Despite his nightly dominance, the field pretty much never wants to pick on the Dodgers, and tonight is no exception. While he would be much more appealing in almost any other spot, Ragans is still a top-2 pitcher 11.6% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 4.0% of lineups expected to roster Ragans, he’s an easy way to get different without sacrificing any upside.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Royals-Dodgers: Royals
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 2.6%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 1.3%
Unlike at pitcher where five arms are projected to dominate ownership, the Pirates are the only stack projected to be double-digit-owned on DraftKings. Matched up with Ryan Feltner in Coors Field, Pittsburgh is unsurprisingly getting love from the field. While teams like the Diamondbacks and White Sox are also projected to be relatively highly owned, ownership is flat on pretty much every other team on the slate. That leaves a bunch of contrarian stacks at our disposal, with the Royals standing out as the best of the bunch.
Taking on Dodgers right-hander Gavin Stone, the Royals don’t appear to be in as good of a spot as the more popular offenses on the slate. Stone has been rock solid for a Dodgers staff that has needed him without the services of Dustin May, Bobby Miller and Clayton Kershaw. Stone comes into tonight with a pristine 2.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .289 WOBA, 53 strikeouts and 21 walks over 67.2 innings. While he’s been great on the surface, Stone’s 3.95 xERA and .316 xWOBA suggest that the regression monster is coming for him sooner rather than later. Even if that’s not guaranteed to come tonight, the Royals offense is filled with upside, and it is falling completely through the cracks on DraftKings.
As of this writing, Kansas City is projected to be the top stack 2.6% of the time this slate plays out. The field is only getting to them at half that rate, however, as only 1.3% of lineups are projected to stack them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Rockies, Padres, A’s, Reds
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